Disclaimer: I DO NOT DO CONSPIRACY THEORIES
The Fourth Turning is not a conspiracy theory. It is a theory, but it is not a conspiracy theory. It is a theory explained, in a book, by scholarly individuals that have attempted to apply what they see as the cyclical nature of history, as it has unfolded in America, to life in general.
Saeculum: A saeculum is a length of time roughly equal to the potential lifetime of a person or, equivalently, of the complete renewal of a human population. The term was first used by the Etruscans.
It has been theorized, with supported data through America’s history, that each saeculum proceeds through four periods, grouped together, forming one cycle of 75 to 100 years. The periods are referred to as Turnings, thus First through Fourth Turnings, each lasting about twenty years.
Each turning is marked by the rise of a new generation, as well. That helps to explain how each turning seems to be marked by a different mood. How many kids do you know that want to be just like their parents? No, they are looking to do something new.
The turnings, then, are marked by specific moods that seem to repeat.
First Turnings are marked by a High – civic feelings are high, enthusiasm grows.
Second Turnings are marked by an Awakening – the Protestant Reformation (1536), the Puritan Awakening (1640), the Great Awakening (1741), the Transcendental Awakening (1831), the Third Great Awakening (1896), and, in our cycle, the Consciousness Awakening (1974). Notice the time spans between each Second Turning Awakening period. They are cyclical.
Third Turnings are marked by an Unraveling – a general distrust of institutions and leaders begins to grow and, ultimately, pervades civil society.
Fourth Turnings are marked by a Crisis – institutional life is torn down and is, ultimately, rebuilt from the ground up, ushering civil society into a new era – a First Turning – marked by a High.
The book that documents all this, “The Fourth Turning,” was written in 1997, in the middle of the current cycle’s Third Turning. The authors document the happenings up until then and theorize as to what might follow as the lead-up to the beginning of the Fourth Turning. Additionally, they look to the middle Oh-Oh’s (2005-ish) as the transition over to the current Fourth Turning. It has generally been agreed to by many that such occurred with the Crisis of the 2008 financial meltdown. That would put the final stages of the Fourth Turning somewhere around 2025 to 2030, based on previous cycles.
But the numbers are not exact, they are estimates based on the past, anything can happen.
And that brings us to the current times. What do we see? A Pandemic has exploded our world. The world economy has been put on hold. Millions of people, already teetering on the brink of starvation have been given the push. Millions of Americans have been added to the unemployment rolls, this just two months after the strongest economy the world has ever seen.
As if that wasn’t enough, civil unrest has erupted, predicated on the premise that an unarmed black man was unjustly killed. Cities are burning, accompanied by looting and general mayhem.
Soros, ANTIFA, White Nationalists? Everybody has their whipping-boy of choice.
Do not read this post, and the subsequent link if you chose to research the theory further, if you have the tendency to descend into conspiracy. That is not what this is about. This is a sober look at what is happening and an attempt to make sense of it. The information that I present here is the best explanation about what is going on that I’ve seen. That said, if you have a better explanation, I’m open to it but, again, the big picture, no conspiracies, please.
2 thoughts on “The Fourth Turning – Vol 1.”
Interesting theory. I can see how it appears to be cyclical for our modern times, i.e. the past two to three hundred years.
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My main interest is how it relates to what is happening today. Given all the scenarios I have seen suggested, this makes the most sense.